Assessing Future Integrated Climate Pressure and Dominant-Driver Transitions in the Yellow River Diversion Receiving Area of Henan Province Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Climate change is continuously intensifying extreme climatic events and their compound effects. Assessments based on changes in single climate variables are increasingly insufficient for identifying future integrated climate pressure. Based on 23 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study projected future changes in precipitation and temperature under different emission scenarios in the Yellow River Diversion Receiving Area of Henan Province. An integrated climate pressure index was further developed to identify the spatial pattern of climate pressure and changes in its dominant drivers. The results show that: (1) The study area will experience continuous warming with wetting, with precipitation increases mainly reflected in enhanced intensity and extremes. In the far future, the median increases in Rx1day, Rx5day, and R95pTOT reach 43.22 mm, 87.33 mm, and 310.54 mm, respectively. (2) High-value zones of key climate indicators show clear spatial aggregation. High ΔR95pTOT values remain concentrated in the southeast, high ΔTmax values shift toward the south and southeast, and ΔTmin shows weaker spatial differentiation but broader high-value coverage. (3) Future integrated climate pressure is generally higher in the eastern and southeastern areas and lower in the western and northwestern areas, with a stable high-pressure core around Zhoukou–Shangqiu–Kaifeng. (4) The dominant drivers shift from the dominance of ΔTmax under low-emission scenarios to the combined dominance of ΔTmax and ΔRx1day under high-emission scenarios, indicating a gradual transition in the source of future integrated climate pressure from a single warming signal to the combined effects of warming and extreme precipitation.