Leveraging thermal regimes and connectivity networks to promote evolutionary adaptation across coral reef seascapes

The rise of marine heat waves threatens coral reefs, potentially outpacing adaptation. Managing reef seascapes to support thermal evolution is well recognized, but specific actions and site prioritizations are only emerging. We present an operational framework that leverages heat-wave exposure and larval dispersal patterns to create reef functional units with distinct roles and management needs. Using the Great Barrier Reef, we explore the emergent management portfolio and find complementary regional priorities: protection and outplanting for assisted evolution are prioritized in southern reefs, while northern reefs serve as valuable heat-tolerant sources. Strategic, evolution-informed management is critical for reef survival as climate pressures intensify.