Urinary Levels of Tobacco-Specific Nitrosamine Metabolites in Relation to Lung Cancer Development in Two Prospective Cohorts of Cigarette Smokers

4-(Methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL) and its glucuronides (sum of which is denoted as total NNAL) are metabolites of 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK). NNK and NNAL can induce lung cancer in laboratory animals but human data are limited. The association between prediagnostic levels of urinary total NNAL and risk of lung cancer development was evaluated in two prospective cohorts of Chinese cigarette smokers. We conducted a nested case-control study involving 246 cases of incident lung cancer and 245 cohort controls who were individually matched to the index cases by age, gender, neighborhood of residence at cohort enrollment, and date of urine collection. Urinary levels of total NNAL were significantly associated with risk of lung cancer in a dose-dependent manner. Relative to the lowest tertile, risks associated with the second and third tertiles of total NNAL were 1.43 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.86-2.37 and 2.11 (95% CI, 1.25-3.54), respectively (P for trend=0.005) after adjustment for self-reported smoking history and urinary total cotinine. Smokers in the highest tertiles of urinary total NNAL and total cotinine exhibited a 8.5-fold (95% CI, 3.7-19.5) increased risk for lung cancer relative to smokers with comparable smoking history but possessing the lowest tertiles of urinary total NNAL and total cotinine. Findings of the present study directly link NNK exposure to lung cancer development in humans.