Outcomes of active surveillance in low-risk prostate cancer: A retrospective cohort study

Active surveillance (AS) is an established strategy for managing low-risk prostate cancer (LRPCa), aiming to reduce overtreatment while maintaining oncological safety. This retrospective cohort study included 102 patients diagnosed with LRPCa between 2015 and 2025, managed with serial prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, digital rectal examination, multiparametric MRI (mpMRI), and confirmatory biopsies. Transition criteria included Gleason score upgrading, PSA progression, lesion progression on mpMRI, or patient preference. The median follow-up was 16 months (range: 6-123), while the estimated median surveillance duration was 36 months (95% confidence interval: 30-42). Retention rates at 2 and 5 years were 72% and 50%, respectively. A total of 35.3% (36/102) of patients discontinued AS, most frequently due to patient preference (61.1%), followed by PSA progression (25.0%) and histopathological upgrading (13.9%). Only 25.5% (26/102) of patients underwent confirmatory biopsy during follow-up, reflecting suboptimal adherence that may have contributed to an underestimation of true pathological progression. Multivariate analysis revealed that higher final PSA levels (odds ratio OR: 1.559, P = .001), abnormal digital rectal examination findings (OR: 11.079, P < .001), and Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System 4 to 5 lesions on mpMRI (OR: 5.482, P < .001) were independently associated with transition to definitive treatment. These findings suggest that AS remains a feasible and effective management strategy for LRPCa, though confirmatory biopsies and structured psychological support are essential to optimize adherence and prevent overtreatment. Future studies should investigate the integration of biomarkers and AI-assisted imaging in refining AS protocols.