Applying behavioral economics to understand changes in alcohol outcomes during the transition to adulthood: Longitudinal relations and differences by sex and race.

OBJECTIVE: Population drinking trends show clear developmental periodicity, with steep increases in harmful alcohol use from ages 18 to 22 followed by a gradual decline across the 20s, albeit with persistent problematic use in a subgroup of individuals. Cross-sectional studies implicate behavioral economic indicators of alcohol overvaluation (high alcohol demand) and lack of alternative substance-free reinforcers (high proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement) as potential predictors of change during this developmental window, but longitudinal evidence is sparse. METHOD: (maximum expenditure), and change in demand elasticity (rate of change in consumption across escalating price) over five assessments (every 4 months) using random intercept cross-lagged panel models. RESULTS: predicted change in alcohol problems for male participants and change in intensity predicted change in alcohol problems for non-White participants. CONCLUSION: The study provides consistent support for proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement and mixed support for demand as within-person predictors of reductions in drinking. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).