Data-Driven Modeling of Global Storm Surges

In many areas, storm surges caused by tropical or extratropical cyclones are the main contributors to critical extreme sea level events. Storm surges can be simulated using numerical models that are based on the underlying physical processes, or by using data-driven models that quantify the relationship between the predictand (storm surge) and relevant predictors (wind speed, mean sea-level pressure, etc.). This study explores the potential of data-driven models to simulate storm surges globally. A multitude of predictors (obtained from remote sensing and climate reanalysis) along with predictands (from tide gauge observations and storm surge reanalysis) are utilized to train and validate data-driven models to simulate daily maximum surge for the global coastline. Data-driven models simulate daily maximum surge better in extratropical and sub-tropical regions (average correlation and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.79 and 7.5 cm, respectively), than in the tropics (average correlation and RMSE of 0.45 and 5.3 cm, respectively). For extreme events, the average correlation decreases to 0.54 (0.33) and RMSE increases to 14.5 (13.1) cm for extratropical (tropical) regions. Models forced with remotely sensed predictors showed a slightly better performance (average correlation of 0.69) than models forced with predictors obtained from reanalysis products (average correlation of 0.68). Results also highlight a significant improvement (i.e., average correlation increases from 0.54 to 0.68; RMSE reduces from 11 cm to 7 cm) over the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR), derived from the only global hydrodynamic model. For approximately 70% of tide gauges, mean sea-level pressure is the most important predictor to model daily maximum surge. Our results highlight the added value of data-driven models in the context of simulating storm surges at the global scale, in addition to existing hydrodynamic numerical models.