When more becomes less: analyzing livelihood diversification dynamics among subsidized rural communities in Northeastern Zimbabwe

In rural development, livelihood diversification is crucial for enhancing resilience and economic stability among marginalized communities. Justifiably, most existing research assumes diversification as inherently beneficial, leading to improved income, while overlooking the tradeoffs between activity profitability and household welfare. Grounded in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, we analyse the impact of input subsidies on livelihood diversification in northeastern Zimbabwe using a random sample of 408 households. We further investigate the relationship between diversification and household income to determine whether available opportunities are high-return, choice-driven, or low-return, necessity-driven. Our findings reveal that while input subsidies promote diversification, an inverse U-shaped relationship exists between diversification and total income, indicating an optimal level of diversification. Beyond this threshold, excessive diversification is linked to distress-driven coping through low-return survival activities, resulting in lower income outcomes. The study identifies key capital assets, including tertiary education, livestock, irrigation, contract farming, and formal credit, as crucial for high-return diversification. However, these assets are concentrated among non-vulnerable groups. We advocate for expanding irrigation infrastructure and leveraging contract farming in the tobacco and horticultural sectors to promote inclusion. The findings highlight the need for a paradigm shift in agricultural and livelihood support frameworks to empower marginalized households.