The vision-stability paradox (VSP): a multidimensional analysis of revolutionary leadership and destabilisation in Africa

This article introduces the vision–stability paradox (VSP) to explain why revolutionary leaders in postcolonial Africa often face regime destabilisation despite their transformative ambitions. The VSP framework integrates four interrelated variables – vision intensity, elite cohesion, foreign dependency and social legitimacy – into a multidimensional index applied through comparative case analysis. The study investigates seven African leaders – Patrice Lumumba, Thomas Sankara, Kwame Nkrumah, Muammar Gaddafi, Nelson Mandela, Paul Kagame and Ibrahim Traoré – using process-tracing and structured content analysis of political speeches, archival records and secondary sources. In the absence of institutional embedding, elite alignment or sequenced transformation, high-vision leadership raises the risk of collapse. In contrast, inclusive coalitions and flexible institutions with innovative objectives can create lasting change. The article advances leadership theory, postcolonial state-building and African political development by redefining stability as structural negotiation rather than normative legitimacy. The VSP index diagnoses reform-driven instability in fragile regimes.