Trends in Wind Waves and Wind Speed in the Eurasian Arctic Seas

Despite numerous studies on Arctic wave climate changes associated with sea ice retreat, the spatiotemporal relationship between wind variability and significant wave heights in the Eurasian Arctic remains insufficiently understood. This study analyzes wave and wind variability in the Eurasian Arctic seas for 1979–2025 using the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The quality of the modeling was verified against satellite altimetry and buoy data; the average correlation coefficient exceeded 0.9, and the RMSE was 0.368 m. An analysis of 3-hourly significant wave height (Hs) and wind speed data revealed positive trends in mean annual Hs across the Arctic, with the strongest statistically significant increases in the Barents and Kara Seas. Extreme wave conditions (95th percentile) showed the largest growth in the Kara, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas. During ice-free periods, significant trends were weaker and more localized, although positive trends persisted near the Northern Sea Route. Mean wind speed trends were generally positive but mostly statistically insignificant. The results provide a spatially consistent characterization of long-term changes in wind and wave climate under evolving sea-ice conditions and may be used to inform assessments of navigation conditions and associated risks along the Northern Sea Route.