A Case Study on Pathogen Transport, Deposition, Evaporation and Transmission: Linking High-Fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations to Probability of Infection

A high-fidelity, low-Mach computational fluid dynamics simulation tool that includes evaporating droplets and variable-density turbulent flow coupling is well-suited to ascertain transmission probability and supports risk mitigation methods development for airborne infectious diseases such as COVID-19. A multi-physics large-eddy simulation-based paradigm is used to explore droplet and aerosol pathogen transport from a synthetic cough emanating from a kneeling humanoid. For an outdoor configuration that mimics the recent open-space social distance strategy of San Francisco, maximum primary droplet deposition distances are shown to approach 8.1 m in a moderate wind configuration with the aerosol plume transported in excess of 15 m. In quiescent conditions, the aerosol plume extends to approximately 4 m before the emanating pulsed jet becomes neutrally buoyant. A dose–response model, which is based on previous SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) data, is exercised on the high-fidelity aerosol transport database to establish relative risk at eighteen virtual receptor probe locations.