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The formations of Hurricane Andrew, Tropical Storm Ernesto, and Hurricane Luis, which occurred, respectively, during the 1992, 1994, and 1995 hurricane seasons over the eastern Atlantic, have been investigated by utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded data analyses. These cases were selected to illustrate the contrasting influences of the Saharan air layer (SAL) on tropical cyclogenesis. Analyses results show that Tropical Storm Ernesto (1994) and Hurricane Luis (1995) formed from the merger of the low-level (925 hPa) and midlevel (700 hPa) vortices over the eastern Atlantic within the monsoon trough enhanced by surges in the trades. Midlevel vortices associated with each case appear to evolve from African wave troughs enhanced by cyclonic shear vorticity of the midtropospheric jet, which existed to the south of an SAL anticyclonic eddy as an elongated wind maximum. Vorticity budget calculations suggest that vortex stretching dominated the enhancement of low-level vortices, whereas positive vorticity advection (PVA) on the south and leading edge of the midlevel easterly jet (MLEJ) but ahead of the trough axis contributed to the enhancement of midlevel vortices for both cases. Persistent upper-level divergence associated with an anticyclonic circulation appears to have aided in the formation of Ernesto, whereas for Luis, no such prior forcing is evident. Hurricane Andrew (1992), on the other hand, appears to form from a deep African wave vortex. Vortex stretching contributed to the development of low-level vortices. Although cyclonic shear vorticity to the south of the MLEJ is present in association with a deeper and wider SAL devoid of its characteristic anticyclonic eddy (unlike in Ernesto and Luis), the midlevel contribution from PVA on the south side of the jet to the maintenance of the midlevel vortex is found to be insignificant in Andrew due to negligible cross- (vorticity) contour flow to the south and ahead of the wave trough. However, the pre-Andrew growth was dominated by PVA at upper levels associated with easterly wave perturbations to the south of an anticyclonic circulation center but to the north of an upper-level easterly jet. In at least two cases (i.e., Ernesto and Luis), the SAL directly contributed to the negative PV anomalies to the north of the MLEJ, which resulted in the sign reversal of the meridional gradient of potential vorticity (between 850- and 700-hPa levels), which satisfies the Charney and Stern criterion for barotropic and baroclinic instability across the midtropospheric jet over the eastern Atlantic. The baroclinic mechanism, proposed by Karyampudi and Carlson, is found to be valid in explaining some of the wave growth processes involved in the genesis of the same two cases. Based on these results, it is concluded that SAL had a positive influence on at least two cases both (Ernesto and Luis) occurred in normal Sahel rainfall years, in contrast to a negative influence on Andrew, which occurred in an extremely dry year.
Karyampudi et al. (Fri,) studied this question.