Measuring global supply chain resilience: entropy-based volatility analysis of container flows

Purpose In an era of heightened geopolitical instability, assessing the resilience of international supply chains has become a strategic priority. Conventional deterministic approaches often fail to capture the stochastic and time-varying nature of global logistics disruptions. This study develops an entropy-based framework to measure the resilience of international container flows by examining the informational structure of freight rate volatility. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts a quantitative approach in which the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is analyzed as a stochastic time series. Time-varying volatility is combined with Shannon entropy to construct a dynamic Supply Chain Resilience Score that captures structural uncertainty in container freight markets. The analysis combines an empirical application using observed weekly SCFI data from 2021–2024 with a calibrated numerical simulation designed to illustrate the entropy-resilience mechanism under controlled volatility regimes. Findings The results indicate that increases in entropy consistently precede extreme freight rate movements. The proposed resilience score declines into a low-resilience regime several weeks before peak price levels are reached, suggesting that structural uncertainty emerges before observable market stress. These patterns are not captured by conventional variance-based measures. Research limitations/implications The analysis focuses on an aggregate freight index and does not differentiate between specific trade lanes or carrier-level dynamics. Future research may extend the framework to route-specific data and incorporate additional exogenous risk factors such as energy prices and policy interventions. Practical implications The entropy-based resilience metric provides logistics managers and policymakers with a forward-looking tool for monitoring systemic stress and distinguishing adaptive market adjustments in light of emerging fragility. The results suggest that improvements in information transparency may play a critical role in enhancing supply chain resilience. Originality/value This study adds to the literature on logistics and trade by combining information-theoretic measures with volatility analysis to create a dynamic and understandable measure of supply chain resilience in container shipping markets.