Prior Year’s Predictors of Eighth-Grade Algebra Achievement

This study examines the power of cognitive and noncognitive variables to predict students’ performance in algebra. We investigated students’ prior year’s assessment scores and demographic characteristics to predict eighth-grade algebra scores. Using California statewide assessment data, we explored predictive factors in three regression models. These analyses reveal that the seventh-grade mathematics test scores account for 61% of the variance in eighth graders’ algebra test scores. Analyzing subscores of the seventh-grade mathematics test, the assessment content focus of rational numbers is a major predictor, contributing 48% of the variance in eighth graders’ algebra test scores. On the other hand, students’ demographic variables show little predictive power for eighth-grade algebra scores. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the factors that impact a student’s success in learning algebra.