The Evidential Value of Paint. Part II: A Bayesian Approach

Over 1000 vehicles were examined and the make, color and year recorded. In addition, the presence of foreign paint was noted and whether or not there was damage to the vehicle's paintwork that may have given rise to paint being transferred. Using Bayes' theorem the likelihood ratios for various paint transfer scenarios are calculated. These ratios are then converted to an appropriate verbal equivalent and compared to conclusions used by forensic paint examiners for similar scenarios.