Key result
Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases, showing a pooled relative risk of 1.52 at the 95th percentile of temperature compared to the median.
Why the study?
Do meteorological factors affect pediatric HFMD occurrences in Guangdong, China?
Observational (n=400,408)
Yes
Do meteorological factors affect pediatric HFMD occurrences in Guangdong, China?
Daily average temperature and relative humidity have non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD occurrences, with geographic variations.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
High temperature and humidity were associated with increased pediatric HFMD risk; leaves open whether geography-tailored early-warning systems could aid prevention.
BACKGROUND: Literature shows inconsistency in meteorological effects on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in different cities. This multi-city study aims to investigate the meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD occurrences and the potential effect modification by geographic factors. METHODS: Based on daily time-series data in eight major cities in Guangdong, China during 2009-2013, mixed generalized additive models were employed to estimate city-specific meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD. Then, a random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled risks and to explore heterogeneity explained by city-level factors. RESULTS: There were a total of 400,408 pediatric HFMD cases (children aged 0-14 years old) with an annual incidence rate of 16.6 cases per 1,000 children, clustered in males and children under 3 years old. Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases with the highest pooled relative risk (RR) of 1.52 (95 % CI: 1.30-1.77) at the 95th percentile of temperature (30.5 °C) as compared to the median temperature (23.5 °C). Significant non-linear positive effects of high relative humidity were also observed with a 13 % increase (RR = 1.13, 95 % CI: 1.00-1.28) in the risk of HFMD at the 99th percentile of relative humidity (86.9 %) as compared to the median value (78 %). The effect estimates showed geographic variations among the cities which was significantly associated with city's latitude and longitude with an explained heterogeneity of 32 %. CONCLUSIONS: Daily average temperature and relative humidity had non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD and the effects varied across different cities. These findings provide important evidence for comprehensive understanding of the climatic effects on pediatric HFMD and for the authority to take targeted interventions and measures to control the occurrence and transmission of HFMD.
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Guo et al. (2016) conducted an observational in Pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) (n=400,408). Daily average temperature vs. Median daily average temperature (23.5 °C) was evaluated on Pediatric HFMD occurrences (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.30-1.77). Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases, showing a pooled relative risk of 1.52 at the 95th percentile of temperature compared to the median.
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