Preeclampsia Risk Prediction Model for Chinese Pregnant Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVE: To screen for a high risk of preeclampsia in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: A total of 513 antenatal care records of pregnant patients with SLE were obtained, and the data were randomly assigned to either a development set (n = 342) or a validation set (n = 171). Preeclampsia predictors were identified with stepwise regression, and a coefficient B of each variable was used to establish a prediction model and risk scoring system. Goodness-of-fit was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow and Omnibus tests, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve) was used to assess discrimination. Validation was performed using the validation set. RESULTS: The preeclampsia incidence was 14.4% in the pregnant patients with SLE. A mean arterial pressure (MAP) ≥96.5 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR] 213.15 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 24.39-999.99]), prepregnancy hypertension (OR 18.19 [95% CI 2.67-125.01]), a hematologic disorder (OR 4.13 [95% CI 1.03-16.67]), positive IgM anticardiolipin antibodies (aCLs) (OR 19.85 [95% CI 1.11-333.33]), serum albumin <31.5 grams/liter (OR 9.88 [95% CI 2.07-47.62]), serum uric acid ≥303 μmoles/liter (OR 5.58 [95% CI 1.40-22.22]), and 24-hour urinary protein ≥0.286 grams (OR 14.39 [95% CI 2.43-83.33]) were selected for the preeclampsia prediction model. The area under the curve was 0.975. Preeclampsia prediction model scores >4 indicated a high risk of preeclampsia. For the validation set, the preeclampsia prediction accuracy was 93.6% (sensitivity 88.5%, specificity 94.5%). CONCLUSION: A model for predicting the risk of preeclampsia in pregnant patients with SLE was established on the basis of MAP, prepregnancy hypertension, hematologic disorders, IgM aCLs, albumin, uric acid, and 24-hour urinary protein. The model had good predictive efficiency and can help clinicians improve pregnancy outcomes in high-risk women with early interventions.