The Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban-Rural Coordinated Development and Its Driving Forces in Yangtze River Delta

This paper conducts an analytical study on the urban-rural coordinated development (URCD) in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA), and uses data from 2000–2015 of 27 central cities to study the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of URCD and to discover the influencing factors and driving forces behind it through PCA, ESDA and spatial regression models. It reveals that URCD of the YRDUA shows an obvious club convergence phenomenon during the research duration. The regions with high-level URCD gather mainly in the central part of the urban agglomeration, while the remaining regions mostly have low-level URCD, reflecting the regional aggregation phenomenon of spatial divergence. At the same time, we split URCD into efficiency and equity: urban-rural efficient development (URED) also exhibits similar spatiotemporal evolution patterns, but the patterns of urban-rural balanced development (URBD) show some variability. Finally, by analyzing the driving forces in major years during 2000–2015, it can be concluded that: (i) In recent years, influencing factors such as government financial input and consumption no longer play the main driving role. (ii) Influencing factors such as industrialization degree, fixed asset investment and foreign investment even limit URCD in some years. The above results also show that the government should redesign at the system level to give full play to the contributing factors depending on the actual state of development in different regions and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. The results of this study show that the idea of measuring URCD from two dimensions of efficiency and equity is practical and feasible, and the spatial econometric model can reveal the spatial distribution heterogeneity and time evolution characteristics of regional development, which can provide useful insights for urban-rural integration development of other countries and regions.