Capacity planning in small isolated power systems using probabilistic methods

Probabilistic methods are widely used in large power systems, but are not generally applied to small isolated systems where the accepted criteria for capacity planning are largely deterministic. These techniques do not normally include any explicit recognition of system risk and do not provide comparable risks for systems of different size or composition. An approach, designated as system well-being analysis, has been developed to bridge the gap between the two methods, and it incorporates the accepted deterministic criteria in a probabilistic framework. The paper presents an approach to capacity planning of small isolated systems in which the conventional probabilistic and the well-being indices are used jointly.