The effects of SARS on the Hong Kong tourism industry: An empirical evaluation

The objective of this study is to assess the temporal impact of SARS on the tourists' arrival in Hong Kong. An econometric strategy was carefully selected to determine the existence of unit roots in data series containing the number of tourist arrivals from 36 source countries between 1978 and 2001. The existence of unit roots can detect the stationary properties of the series. The analysis finds that data series of 24 countries contain unit roots and hence any form of exogenous shocks, like the SARS epidemic, can have permanent impact on the number of tourist arrivals. Included in this category are Japan, Taiwan, the US and the UK, which are the main source of tourists for Hong Kong. The paper recommends that authorities take source-country-specific measures to manage the negative effect of SARS.