Technology foresight: A taxonomy

The rapid acceleration of technological change can lead business and public administration decision-makers to have difficulties in choosing the right tools. In this case it is a question of having difficulty choosing between a plethora of foresight methods without clear operational guidance. The aim of this research is to solve such a complexity by creating a taxonomy of technology foresight techniques based on contingency principles. A systematic literature review of 177 business and management publications was conducted, identifying 42 core studies for in-depth analysis. Using Nickerson’s method, we constructed a taxonomic framework based on six dimensions, composed of adaptivity, collaboration level, technology focus, approach type, sector field, and region. These dimensions were synthesized into two operational matrices, called “Context-Method Fit” matrix and “Operational Dimensions” matrix. The results reveal significant divergences, such as the preference for scenario planning in developed economies versus trend analysis in developing contexts, and highlight a gap between academic theory and industrial practice (e.g., the use of the Futures Wheel). This taxonomy provides public administrators and managers with a sensemaking tool to investigate the most effective foresight method based on their specific environmental constraints and strategic goals.