Forecasting Halibut Biomass Using System Theoretic Time‐Series Methods

A new procedure introduced by Masanao Aoki uses the ideas of linear systems theory to identify and estimate time‐series models. A slightly modified version of this procedure is used to forecast halibut biomass in total and by regulatory area and subarea, and the out‐of‐sample forecasts are evaluated for eight years. All models produce highly accurate forecasts of biomass, with errors well within the bounds required for setting catch limits in the following year.