Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) significantly impacts global livestock industries, with raw milk transportation posing a recognized pathway for viral dissemination, particularly in endemic regions. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of FMD virus (FMDV) introduction and transmission to dairy farms via raw milk transportation in Ban Thi District, Thailand. A qualitative risk assessment methodology, adhering to WOAH guidelines, was employed. Data were collected through structured farmer surveys (n = 109), expert interviews (n = 12), and reviews of national disease surveillance data and scientific literature. The risk assessment, utilizing a scenario tree approach for domestic dairy cattle, revealed a moderate overall risk of FMDV transmission. This finding is primarily attributed to critical gaps in on-farm biosecurity practices, potential contamination at milk collection centers, and significant challenges in detecting subclinical carrier animals. While the qualitative approach presented inherent limitations and uncertainties, the study successfully highlighted key vulnerabilities. The results underscore the urgent necessity for implementing targeted biosecurity protocols, developing more robust surveillance strategies for FMDV carriers, and establishing standardized risk assessment frameworks to mitigate potential outbreaks and protect the regional dairy industry.