Changes in PM 2.5 -Attributable Mortality in the US by Sector, 2002–2019

Levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) air pollution in the United States have declined substantially in recent decades, yielding substantial benefits to public health. This study evaluates emission reductions across five key economic sectors─electricity, industrial, transportation, agriculture, and residential─and their impact on air quality and health. We employ a recently developed sector-specific inventory that provides emissions and their spatial disaggregation across time in a self-consistent framework. Using a national source-receptor matrix, we estimate annual PM 2.5 -attributable mortality and its variability spatiotemporally and by sector. We find that annual PM 2.5 -attributable mortality decreased 51% between 2002 (197,000 deaths) and 2019 (96,000 deaths). The largest reductions were from electricity and transportation, especially secondary PM 2.5 from NO x, SO x, and VOC emissions. Emissions reductions from industrial and residential sectors were more modest. In contrast, agricultural emissions, especially NH 3, increased over time; the importance of agriculture among the five sectors increased from second-smallest (2002) to the largest (2019). While the reductions in PM 2.5 -attributable mortality have been large (approximately a factor of 2), future progress may need to focus greater attention on agricultural emissions, in addition to traditionally dominant sources such as transportation and industry.