The estimated basic reproduction numbers for major enteroviruses causing HFMD in Singapore provide insights for timely implementation of disease control measures.
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May inform HFMD outbreak preparedness; leaves open prospective validation across settings.
The major enteroviruses causing nationwide epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Singapore were enterovirus 71 (EV71), coxsackievirus A6 (CA6) and A16 (CA16). A mathematical model was used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R₀) of these enteroviruses based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each HFMD outbreak. The median R₀ was estimated to be 3.50 for EV71, 2.42 for CA16, and 5.04 for CA6. The enterovirus-specific R₀ estimates would be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics for timely implementation of disease control measures.
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Lim et al. (2014) studied this question.
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