From wind to loads: wind turbine site-specific load estimation with surrogate models trained on high-fidelity load databases

We define and demonstrate a procedure for quick assessment of site-specific lifetime fatigue loads using simplified load mapping functions (surrogate models), trained by means of a database with high-fidelity load simulations. The performance of five surrogate models is assessed by comparing site-specific lifetime fatigue load predictions at 10 sites using an aeroelastic model of the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine. The surrogate methods are polynomial chaos expansion, quadratic response surface, universal Kriging, importance sampling, and nearest-neighbor interpolation. Practical bounds for the database and calibration are defined via nine environmental variables, and their relative effects on the fatigue loads are evaluated by means of Sobol sensitivity indices. Of the surrogate-model methods, polynomial chaos expansion provides an accurate and robust performance in prediction of the different site-specific loads. Although the Kriging approach showed slightly better accuracy, it also demanded more computational resources.