Innovation-System Enabling Conditions and the Sustainable Development Goals: Goal-Level Evidence from Africa

This study analyzes the link between innovation-system enabling conditions and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) outcomes in 43 African countries from 2005 to 2023 using a pillar-based framework informed by national innovation systems theory. Key indicators such as R&D expenditure, public education spending, labor force participation, and institutional quality serve as proxies for innovation capacity. Empirically, the study estimates goal-specific two-way fixed-effects panel regressions for each of the 17 SDGs and complements them with instrumental variable (IV/2SLS) estimation to address potential endogeneity. The findings show significant variability among SDG outcomes, with positive associations for health (Goal 3), education (Goal 4), gender equality (Goal 5), industrial development (Goal 9), and institutional strength (Goals 16 and 17). However, negative correlations were found for poverty reduction (Goal 1), inequality (Goal 10), climate action (Goal 13), and responsible consumption (Goal 12), indicating that innovation-driven development has not led to inclusive or sustainable progress. To address potential overlaps between innovation-system indicators and the SDGs, sensitivity analyses were performed, confirming the robustness of the results; however, some overlapping goals showed reduced effects. Additional analyses suggest caution in interpreting relationships, especially concerning poverty outcomes. This study highlights the need for innovation policy to focus on inclusivity, poverty reduction, environmental sustainability, and stronger institutional coordination to achieve the 2030 Agenda’s goals.