A Global View of Large-Scale Precipitation Variability

Observational studies and model experiments make abundantly clear the need for a global perspective in order to understand the nature and causes of persistent regional precipitation anomalies. Rainfall in the deep tropics is particularly important as a forcing mechanism for the atmosphere's large-scale circulation and climate. Analysis of systematic space-based observations and surface marine data over the past three decades has vastly improved our understanding of tropical convective regimes and their relationship to surface conditions. The characteristics of the annual cycle of tropical convection and its relationship to sea surface temperature field and the general circulation of the tropics are reviewed. The hierarchal nature of tropical precipitation variability on time/space scales ranging from synoptic cloud clusters through the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation to multiyear El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle is discussed. Links between tropical convection and extratropical precipitation on time scales ranging from synoptic to multiyear are examined, with emphasis on conditions over the North Pacific-North American sector during winter. Precipitation variability over a number of regions bordering the Atlantic basin are related to Atlantic sector modes of SST and circulation variability. Systematic modes of Atlantic variability and their relationship to regional precipitation variability are described with emphasis on the tropics. Changes in landscape characteristics (vegetative cover, soil moisture, surface roughness), whether natural or human induced, result in changes in the surface radiation balance and the fluxes of heat and moisture. Our current understanding of the role of land surface processes in sustaining or intensifying anomalous precipitation regimes is briefly discussed. Identification of an anthropogenic trend in the presence of decadal-scale natural variations in precipitation is a formidable challenge. Three examples of large-amplitude secular variations in regional precipitation regimes (Sahel, North American Great Plains, and India) are discussed in terms of possible forcing mechanisms. Continuous global monitoring of precipitation is a challenging task. Satellite-based observations, in conjunction with effective use of surface-based “ground truth” data and further development of four-dimensional data assimilation methodology, offer the only realistic prospects for significant improvement in the monitoring and quantification of global precipitation. Current methods for estimating precipitation from space-based observations are described and an overview of the upcoming Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission is included.