Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment

Carbon capture from ambient air has been proposed as a mitigation strategy to counteract anthropogenic climate change. We use an Earth system model to investigate the response of the coupled climate–carbon system to an instantaneous removal of all anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. In our extreme and idealized simulations, anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are halted and all anthropogenic CO 2 is removed from the atmosphere at year 2050 under the IPCC A2 CO 2 emission scenario when the model-simulated atmospheric CO 2 reaches 511 ppm and surface temperature reaches 1.8 °C above the pre-industrial level. In our simulations a one-time removal of all anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere reduces surface air temperature by 0.8 °C within a few years, but 1 °C surface warming above pre-industrial levels lasts for several centuries. In other words, a one-time removal of 100% excess CO 2 from the atmosphere offsets less than 50% of the warming experienced at the time of removal. To maintain atmospheric CO 2 and temperature at low levels, not only does anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere need to be removed, but anthropogenic CO 2 stored in the ocean and land needs to be removed as well when it outgasses to the atmosphere. In our simulation to maintain atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at pre-industrial levels for centuries, an additional amount of CO 2 equal to the original CO 2 captured would need to be removed over the subsequent 80 years.