Accounting for water quality effects of future urbanization: diffuse pollution loads estimates and control in Mantua's Lakes (Italy)

The three shallow lakes of Mantua (Upper, Middle and Lower) formed by the Mincio River are today classified by Italian water authorities as sensitive areas, after, in the second half of the 20th century, the hydrologic regime of the lakes was heavily modified, and the influence of industrial activities operating in the 1960s--without much environmental consideration--created a substantial decline in the water quality of the lakes. The City of Mantua is one of the most vital industrial centers of Northern Italy, and development plans are under way, that should approximately double the extension of the urban and industrial area within the next 20 years. This paper deals with estimating the effects of the aforementioned urbanization on the future water quality of the three lakes.