Measuring Progress Toward a Goal

This article develops a procedure for measuring how much is gained by students in a pretest and posttest situation against a target score on the posttest. The author defines a productivity index, M j , for teacher j as the ratio of estimated gains to an estimated standard that is the distance between an estimate of the pretest and target score. Using language, mathematics, and reading scores on the SAT 9 for 1999 and 2000 from 75 public elementary classrooms (Grades 3-6 in 2000), the author employs a Bayesian implementation of a multivariate mixed model for repeated test scores from individual students. The analysis points to statistically significant gains on the whole for Grades 3, 4, and 6. The strength of the approach lies in a straightforward estimation of the productivity index and a procedure for representing its uncertainty in the form of a productivity profile. This approach also facilitates a Bayesian effect size analysis free from frequentist appeals to noncentral t or F distributions.