A Census Tract-Level Modeling Framework for the Estimation of Health Co-Benefits of Decarbonization in New York State

High Resolution Image Download MS PowerPoint Slide Tools quantifying copollutant and public health benefits of decarbonization policies typically have coarse resolution, limiting the understanding of local impacts and underestimating benefits. We present the New York Community-Scale Health and Air Pollution Policy Analysis (NY-CHAPPA) tool, a new high-resolution modeling framework to quantify the impacts of energy policies in NY on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations and public health at the census tract scale. NY-CHAPPA integrates two existing reduced-form models: C-TOOLS for local-scale dispersion and COBRA for regional-scale transport to estimate total PM 2.5 concentrations, physical health impacts, and their monetized value. We demonstrate the efficacy of NY-CHAPPA by applying a NY-specific policy scenario and compare results with COBRA at county scale. Under the policy scenario in 2050, NY-CHAPPA estimates substantially greater reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations (4–34% across NY counties compared to 2–8% with COBRA) and $495B in cumulative public health benefits from 2025 to 2050, which is 95% higher than COBRA. The largest reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations were projected in densely populated urban areas. NY-CHAPPA enables quantification of community-scale benefits in NY’s disadvantaged communities, defined at census tract scale and not explicitly represented in other models, informing policy and investments. Statewide, projected per capita benefits in disadvantaged communities were 58% higher than in other communities.