John R. Reynolds, Jennifer Pemberton, Rising College Expectations among Youth in the United States: A Comparison of the 1979 and 1997 NLSY, The Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 36, No. 4, Special Issue on Early Results from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort (Autumn, 2001), pp. 703-726
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Reynolds et al. (2001) studied this question.