Prediction of theDstindex using multiresolution wavelet models

A new identification approach is introduced for predicting the Dst index using multiresolution B‐spline wavelet models based on an observational data set consisting of VB s , the solar wind parameter, as the input and the Dst index as the output. The relationship between the input VB s and output Dst is initially described using a B‐spline wavelet model. This model is then simplified using an orthogonal least squares and error reduction ratio (OLS‐ERR) algorithm by selecting the significant model terms to produce a parsimonious wavelet model. Forecasts of the Dst index are then computed based on this model.