Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy and agriculture in Finland

This article examines some possible paths and inherent political economy of the future reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and their implications for the Finnish agriculture. Scenario approach is qualitatively applied in respect of two policy scenarios, the Agenda 2000 reform proposals and the renationalisation of the CAP. In addition, the proposed European model of agriculture is briefly compared with the farm sector in the United States. Agenda 2000 is regarded as a threat scenario and the renationalisation of the CAP as a target scenario from the point of view of the Finnish agriculture in the European Union.