Emerging technologies and challenges to nuclear stability

Emerging technologies are likely to have significant impacts on international security, particularly nuclear stability. A combination of these technologies could enable persistent surveillance, identification and tracking of mobile nuclear delivery platforms, such as submarines, mobile missile launchers, and bombers, weakening deterrence and catalyzing an arms race. At the same time, these technologies might enhance the survivability of nuclear arsenals, offering new ways to deceive adversaries and provide robust communication, attack warning, and navigation capabilities. To better understand the effect of emerging innovations on nuclear deterrence, we examine five technologies: small satellites, hypersonics, machine learning, cyber weapons, and quantum sensing.