Tropical cyclone tracking and verification techniques for Met Office numerical weather prediction models

The Met Office has been objectively verifying tropical cyclone ( TC ) forecast tracks from its global numerical weather prediction model for many years and also produces TC forecast guidance in real time from both the deterministic and ensemble configurations of the model. An essential component of these processes is a system to automatically identify TCs in the model analysis and track them in the model forecast. This paper describes the history of TC tracking in Met Office models and gives details of the current technique used both within the TC forecast verification system and in the production of real‐time forecast guidance products.