Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the “sexual predator” commitment laws

Predictions of future sexual offending have been mandated by various “Sexual Predator” commitment laws, despite historical arguments that clinicians are frequently inaccurate and over-predict violence. The basis for those arguments has been the perspective that sexual recidivism is a relatively rare event. Research is reviewed, however, with the finding that sexual recidivism for certain offenders is a rather common occurrence when the definition of recidivism is in keeping with the sex offender commitment laws. This finding is used to demonstrate that under-, rather than over-prediction of the designated violence is necessarily today's practice. Practical and ethical implications are discussed.