Cashless Transformation and Consumer Spending During Extreme Crises: Evidence from Ukraine

This study explores the impact of cashless payment systems on consumer spending during extreme crises, using the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a case study. Through a survey of 215 participants, we analyze the factors influencing consumer attitudes toward digital payments, finding that perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, compatibility, and personal innovation significantly predict card adoption, while age, living area, and education do not. Using 20 years of data and an ARDL cointegration bounds model, we identify a positive but insignificant relationship between payment expansion and consumption growth. The primary barrier to card penetration is the lack of payment infrastructure, which could be addressed by promoting card acceptance among small and medium-sized businesses. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance financial resilience during crises through the expansion of cashless payment systems.