Probabilistic assessment of stability of a cut slope in residual soil

A probabilistic slope analysis methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation using Microsoft Excel and @Risk software is applied to investigate the failure of the Shek Kip Mei cut in Hong Kong. The study demonstrates the techniques used in quantifying uncertainties in shear strength of granitic soils based on a large database of triaxial tests. Probabilistic back-analyses of the failure are applied to estimate the probability distribution of the pore water pressure. Using the back-calculated pore pressure, the inclination of the Shek Kip Mei slope is redesigned to a flatter inclination, and the probability of unsatisfactory performance and reliability index are estimated.