We validated the predictive accuracy of an "old" regression model in a "new" sample of bilateral stroke patients (N = 38). Abnormal gag reflex and impaired voluntary cough accurately predicted radiographically verified aspiration in both samples. A final model, using both samples, grouped patients into three risk strata: low risk of 14% (cough and gag normal), moderate risk of 46% to 51% (one of two behaviors abnormal); and high risk of 87% (cough and gag abnormal).
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Horner et al. (1993) studied this question.