A statistical approach to calculating the proportion of the mark that is due to guessing is presented. The use of this statistical approach using formulae in a spreadsheet to calculate the contribution to the assessment mark from guessing is demonstrated. The relationship between the learning objectives and multiple‐choice assessments is considered. It is identified that in some cases maximum performance should not be set at a mark of 100% but that an allowance should be made for the maximum expected performance based on the learning objectives. The use of formulae in a spreadsheet to convert the raw assessment marks into marks or grades corrected for guessing or additionally allowing for the maximum expected mark is demonstrated.
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Ray Harper (2003) studied this question.