Integrated techno-economic assessment of alternative marine fuels under FuelEU maritime, EU ETS, and an IMO net-zero framework scenario

This study evaluates the combined economic and environmental implications of FuelEU Maritime, the EU Emissions Trading System, and an IMO Net-Zero Framework scenario based on the MEPC 83 draft. Its novel contribution lies in integrating these three overlapping regulatory mechanisms within a single unified framework, rather than assessing them separately, to quantify their cumulative effect on fuel choice, compliance cost exposure, and investment performance. The framework evaluates twelve marine fuel pathways using well-to-wake GHG intensity, energy-normalised fuel prices, CAPEX, non-fuel OPEX, Net Present Value (NPV), and discounted payback period. A standardised container vessel with constant annual energy demand is assessed under 0%, 50%, and 100% EU exposure, together with low- and high-risk assumptions. Results show that fuel choice is increasingly policy driven. Under 100% EU exposure, NPV increases by 130.4% for HFO, 100.9% for LNG, and 115.9% for methanol relative to the 0% EU case, while highly compliant fuels change only marginally. HVO offers the shortest discounted payback period, at around five years, and appears to be a robust near-term option. Bio-methanol delivers the lowest baseline NPV, whereas e-hydrogen achieves the lowest lifecycle GHG intensity but becomes the highest-cost pathway under baseline NPV because of very high upfront CAPEX and assumed IMO surplus monetisation. The findings provide practical insights for shipowners facing overlapping and uncertain decarbonisation policies.