Multiple reservoir system screening models

Simple optimization models can be useful for identifying potentially attractive reservoir system configurations and capacities in the early stages of system design. Several families of such screening models have been developed. Their ability to identify cost‐efficient designs that meet specified draft‐reliability targets was evaluated by simulating different designs identified as potentially optimal by the various models. Chance‐constrained models, though simple, generally performed poorly; the “yield model” performed quite well on the sample three‐reservoir water‐supply problem.