This report analyzes Iran's a year strategy of using the Strait of Hormuz and proxy warfare to pressure the global economy. It examines the failure of Iran's maritime tolling strategy, the catastrophic economic collapse (hyperinflation over 70%, currency devaluation, brain drain), the intelligence shadow war dismantling Iran's proxy network, and the high probability of a limited U.S. ground incursion targeting Kharg Island or the Three Islands. The analysis concludes that Iran will be forced into submission through military means, not voluntary surrender, resulting in a multi-hundred-billion-dollar economic catastrophe that will take decades to recover.
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NIMA JAFARI (2026) studied this question.
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