Business Cycles, Political Cycles and the Popularity of Canadian Governments, 1974–1998

This article examines the popularity of Canadian governments between 1974 and 1998 as revealed by the monthly Gallup poll. Approval of each majority government in the 1974–1993 period underwent a cycle of honeymoon, decay and recovery. Underneath the cycle was a long-term downward trend. A simple politicoeconomic model accounts for a large fraction of long-term decay and helps explain the anti-government landslides of 1984 and 1993. But the model leaves inter-election popularity cycles largely unexplained. After 1993, the economy ceased to account for popularity and a wholly new, but apparently stable, electoral cycle emerged. The article concludes with speculation on causes of and contingency in electoral cycles.