Greening aviation with sustainable aviation fuels: Insights from decarbonization scenarios

Recent studies outline markedly different possible decarbonization pathways for civil aviation by 2050. This paper examines how the key assumptions retained in these scenarios (i.e., the posited deployment of sustainable aviation fuels [SAFs], the projected demand trajectory, and the availability of electric and hydrogen-fueled solutions) affect the sector's future emissions of greenhouse gas. Data for 67 recent scenarios from industry-related, academic, institutional, and think tanks/NGO sources are used to perform the analysis. The results shed light on the shared properties of these scenarios. First, we find a clear consensus on the negative impact of SAFs on residual GHG emissions by 2050, conditioning to a high level of SAF penetration. Second, these scenarios posit a smaller decarbonizing power of biomass-based SAF than that of e-fuel. Third, we find signs of authorship bias in some scenarios. This last finding, therefore, raises concerns about the direct use of these scenarios in policymaking. • Aviation scenarios are critical for assessing climate mitigation potentials. • Analysis of 67 decarbonization scenarios reveals significant authorship bias. • Different assumptions largely drive variations in projected emissions by 2050. • Results suggest lower decarbonizing power for biomass-based SAFs than for e-fuels. • Study underscores concerns about direct use of biased scenarios in policymaking.