Transforming urban growth into resilience pathways: A comparative analysis of hazard vulnerability in Windhoek, Namibia and Accra, Ghana

Urban growth in African cities has been rapid and uneven, often intensifying vulnerability to natural and human-induced hazards. This study examines the spatial patterns of urban growth and their implications for hazard vulnerability in two rapidly expanding African capitals: Windhoek, Namibia, and Accra, Ghana. Over the past three decades, both cities have experienced significant transformation, though the scale, form, and spatial distribution of growth differ markedly. The study assesses how urban expansion from 1993 to 2023 has influenced exposure to floods, droughts, fires, and related socio-environmental hazards. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates satellite-based spatial analysis with quantitative assessment and qualitative policy evaluation. Land use dynamics were mapped and complemented by 390 household surveys to capture socio-economic perspectives, while 10 stakeholder interviews and policy analysis examined existing urban resilience frameworks in Namibia and Ghana. Results show that Windhoek exhibits low-density sprawl over underdeveloped land, heightening drought-related vulnerability, whereas Accra displays compact infill growth with increased exposure to floods and fires. Informal settlements remain a key source of vulnerability in both cities. The findings indicate that existing policies emphasize physical risks but insufficiently address underlying socio-economic drivers of exposure. In response, the study proposes a resilience-oriented framework that integrates spatial planning, socio-economic inclusion, and adaptive governance to support sustainable and equitable urban development and transform growth-related vulnerabilities into resilience opportunities across African cities.