Impact of the Real-Time Thermal Loading on the Bulk Electric System Reliability

This paper presents a transmission line failure model that is enhanced with the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) system. The failure model consists of two parts. The first part is the Arrhenius model and it considers the loading effect of the DTR system as a result of operating at a higher temperature than the static thermal rating system. The second part is the Weibull model and it considers the end-of-life (natural ageing) failure effect of the transmission line. The proposed model is compared with the normal distribution model that considers only the end-of-life failure effect of the transmission line. This paper also investigates the uncertainty effects of the line failure model parameters, effects of the DTR system reliability, and the effects of the weather data correlation on the reliability performance of the power system. The proposed methodology and case studies were performed on the IEEE-reliability test network.