Vulnerability of Poland's Coast to Sea-Level Rise

Over the last decades, the Polish coast, about 500 km long and predominantly featured by sandy, low-lying beaches, has been exposed to various threats resulting from intensified climate change and Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR). This has manifested itself in the growing intensity of shoreline, dune and cliff erosion and by the increasing necessity of their protection.The current study is both a summary and an extension of the existing Polish studies and analyses on the present and predicted influence of ASLR on the coast. First, the Polish coast was divided into three basic area types (AREA I, II, III) according to their geographic and socio-economic background. Then, two different scenarios of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR1 — 30 cm/100 yrs and ASLR2 — 100 cm/100 yrs) were assumed. After that threats of land loss and the risk of its temporary or partial inundation was analyzed in connection with the assessment of the material and social costs and losses. These analyses were made within the framework of two adaptation scenarios, i.e. retreat (do nothing) and full protection.The performed analyses have shown that the greatest threat of partial or full land loss and the associated material and social costs are expected to occur in two regions of the Polish coast. One of them is situated in the eastern sector of the Polish coast and covers the agglomeration of Gdańsk and the Żulawy polders. The other is located in the west and comprises low-lying areas around the Szczecin Lagoon and the vicinity of the Odra river mouth. These areas both require intensive care and protection efforts.