Oil and the Great Moderation

We assess the extent to which the greater US macroeconomic stability since the mid‐1980s can be accounted for by changes in oil shocks and the oil elasticity of gross output. We estimate a DSGE model and perform counterfactual simulations. We nest two popular explanations for the Great Moderation: smaller (non‐oil real shocks and better monetary policy. We find that oil played an important role in the stabilisation. Around half of the reduced volatility of inflation is explained by better monetary policy alone, and 57% of the reduced volatility of GDP growth is attributed to smaller TFP shocks. Oil related effects explain around a third.